State of the ship · October 2026

Afloat.
Not yet sailing.

Pakistan's public accounts are the tidiest in two decades. Three in ten of its people are poor, a war is being fought next door, and the port built for exactly this moment could not take the ships. Twelve chapters, every number sourced.

Open the map Go to the diagnosis

Vital signs

Twelve numbers that describe the country right now.

The first row is why lenders are relaxed. The rest is why households are not.

Record highState Bank reserves, 25 Sep 2026$21.4bnAbout 3.5 months of imports, lifted by a September Eurobond.

Lowest in 22 yearsFiscal deficit, FY262.6% of GDPPrimary surplus 2.9%, above the IMF's 2.5% target.

Record highWorkers' remittances, FY26$41.6bnUp 8.6%. Now larger than goods exports.

Below targetGDP growth, FY263.7%Target was 4.2%. Population grows about 2.5% a year.

Back in double digitsInflation, September 202610.3%Was 5.8% a year earlier. Transport prices up 27%.

MissedFederal tax collected (FBR), FY26Rs13.0trRs1.13 trillion short of the budget target.

FallingGoods exports, FY26$30.1bnDown 5.9%. Trade deficit widened to $39.5bn.

HeavyPublic debt, June 2026Rs86.7tr68.3% of GDP, down from 70.6% a year earlier.

The core problemInterest bill, FY27 budgetRs8.05tr43% of all federal spending before a single salary is paid.

Highest in a decadePeople below the poverty line28.9%About 70 million people. It was 21.9% in 2018-19.

War premiumPetrol, 3 October 2026Rs392.76/litrePeaked at Rs458.40 in April. Rs85 of it is levy.

ShutLand borders closed to trade2of 4India and Afghanistan shut. Iran is at war. Only China is open, seasonally.

Above and below the waterline

What keeps the ship up, and what is pulling it under.

Holding Keeping it afloat

2.9% of GDPPrimary surplus in FY26, the third in a row and the largest on record.

$21.4bnCentral-bank reserves, the most the State Bank has ever held.

$41.6bnSent home by Pakistanis abroad, nearly half of it from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Rs6.95trInterest paid in FY26, down from Rs8.9 trillion as rates fell.

The talksIslamabad hosted the US–Iran negotiations and brokered the April ceasefire.

68.3%Public debt as a share of GDP, down from about 75% in 2023.

Taking on water Pulling it under

70 millionPeople in poverty. Real household income is 12% lower than in 2019.

43%Of the FY27 federal budget goes on interest. Defence takes another 16%.

$30.1bnGoods exports, falling. The country earns more by exporting its workers.

Rs633bnIncome tax paid by salaried people: more than exporters, retailers and property combined.

12.5 metresDepth of Gwadar's channel when the Gulf's shipping needed somewhere to go.

One pillar fewerThe 27th Amendment moved constitutional cases to a court whose first judges the government picked.

The verdict

Stabilised on paper. Paid for by the people least able to pay.

This is our reading of the evidence in the chapters that follow. It is analysis, and it is labelled as such wherever it appears.

1 · The accounts really have improved.

A primary surplus of 2.9% of GDP, the smallest deficit in 22 years, debt falling as a share of the economy and record reserves are real, measured achievements under the IMF programme. Anyone who says nothing has changed is not reading the numbers.

2 · The method was to squeeze whoever was already in the net.

Salaried workers paid Rs633bn in income tax; retailers paid Rs70bn. Exemptions still cost Rs2.35 trillion a year. Provinces met their surplus targets by cutting development: Punjab's programme was set at Rs752bn after a Rs1.45 trillion draft, Sindh's was cut 30%.

3 · Households went backwards while the state did not.

Poverty rose from 21.9% to 28.9%. In the same years parliament raised its own pay to Rs519,000 a month, a province bought a $40m jet and Rs3.18 trillion was spent through supplementary grants, most of it without prior approval from parliament.

4 · The war exposed the two things Pakistan depends on.

Gulf oil and Gulf jobs. Petrol rose 40% in a month, inflation doubled, and growth missed its target. The worst forecasts did not come true: reserves and remittances both hit records. That was partly luck and partly diplomacy.

5 · The opening was real and mostly missed.

Gwadar sits outside the Strait of Hormuz. Its channel is 12.5 metres deep, so the ships that needed a new hub could not dock. It handled 11,000 containers in its best month. Jebel Ali handles more than that in a day.

6 · The ship can be steered.

None of this needs a miracle. It needs the untaxed to be taxed, every rupee of discretionary spending to be published, the provinces to raise what they spend, a port dredged, two borders reopened and a court that can say no to the government. The Course sets it out.

Ten years, two recessions, no take-off.

Real GDP growth, % per year. Population grows about 2.5% a year, so anything under that is a fall per person.

FY26 is provisional. Earlier years as revised by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Interest and defence take 59% of the federal budget.

Federal budget FY2026-27, Rs18.77 trillion, by use (Rs billion).

"Everything else" is the remainder: pensions, subsidies, grants and the running of civil government. Our subtraction.

The chapters

Afloat.Not yet sailing.